3.27.2011 Sunday CBB, "83-43-2 ats" Kentucky vs UNC, Great Info !

 

Watching At Home
CBS coverage: The game will be available on CBS. Jim Nantz, Clark Kellogg and Tracy Wolfson will have the call.
Storylines
Controlling the perimeter on both ends: This is a different perimeter matchup than the first time these two teams met, both because of the departure of Larry Drew and the maturation of the freshmen in the backcourt. But both are at their best when taking care of the basketball and making plays for teammates by being aggressive offensively. Kentucky's dribble-drive offense gives opponents fits and Carolina really struggled at times to defend Kentucky's ball screens and stop penetration. Its rotations defensively were also too slow, leaving too many wide-open three's for Kentucky. Carolina is a different team defensively now, but still typically doesn't force as many turnovers as it would like. But Carolina's success against Marquette - and even Washington, late in the game - came as a result of aggressive defense that forced turnovers, and that started with pressure up top and getting into the passing lanes. If Carolina can't stop penetration, much less force turnovers, they will make things very difficult on Carolina's bigs trying to help down low or teammates trying to help and recover as the Wildcats can really zip the ball around quickly. Still, Carolina's 29 points off turnovers against Marquette were its most since February 1st and the 11 steals were the most since December 21st against William and Mary, and the second-most all season. Carolina has scored 61 points off of 45 opponent turnovers in the NCAA Tournament. In the ACC Tournament, Carolina forced 41 turnovers and scored just 43 points off of them. They will have to continue their NCAA Tournament trend with aggressive defense; they are averaging 9.0 steals in the last two games while averaging 6.0 in the other 34 games this year.
The Wildcats are 12th nationally in fewest turnovers per game (10.7), but 81st in turnover margin (+1.5) because they don't force many either. But teams that are able to beat Kentucky don't necessarily force more turnovers - they score more off of the turnovers. The Wildcats are 25-4 when they have the same or more points off turnovers and 3-3 when they have fewer points off turnovers. Opponents who beat Kentucky average 13 points off of 10.9 Kentucky turnovers compared to 10.1 points off 10.5 Kentucky turnovers in UK wins. And in much the same way as a team like Duke always seems to capitalize off of offensive rebounds, the Wildcats do the same with turnovers, averaging 14.8 points off of 12 opponent turnovers in wins (and 14.1 points off of 11.8 turnovers in losses, so it's consistent). Similarly, the Tar Heels average 16 points off of 14.3 turnovers by opponents. But Carolina's opponents average 15 points off of 13.3 turnovers. The key in the NCAA Tournament so far has been to cut those turnovers down; after opponents averaged 26.3 points off 17 turnovers in the ACC Tournament, Carolina has averaged just 11.3 turnovers (eight in the last two games) and allowed 14 points off of them (11.5 in the last two).
But Carolina absolutely has to limit any and all open looks the Wildcats might get from three, particularly off of penetration. In wins this season, Kentucky is shooting 41% from three compared to 34.4% in losses. Opponents are shooting 40.7% when beating Kentucky and 31.3% in Kentucky wins. There is one notable exception - the first Carolina game. The Tar Heels made just 1-of-11 three's (9.1%); all other teams to beat Kentucky made a combined 49-of-112 (44%). And the Wildcats made 9-of-21 (42.9%); they shot higher in a loss only one other time and shot 43-of-130 (33.1%) in all other losses. Neither Carolina nor Kentucky is easy to score on inside, either through penetration or post play. In the Tournament so far, Kentucky is shooting 17-of-46 (37%) from beyond the arc and 54% from two-point range. Kentucky also uses dribble penetration to get into the paint and score rather than simply pass out for a three; Kentucky is 20-2 when it has more points in the paint than its opponent and 8-6 when it has the same or fewer. Carolina has averaged 42 points in the paint in the NCAA Tournament so far while opponents are averaging 38.7 - certainly on the high side of what Carolina normally allows (27.6 in all other games).
And starting in the ACC Tournament, Carolina had allowed 48-of-120 shooting from three in a five-game stretch, ending with Washington's 10-of-19 (52.6%), the highest percentage Carolina had allowed since Illinois made 8-of-12 (67%) on November 30th. But Marquette made just 2-of-16 (12.5%) on Friday, the lowest percentage Carolina allowed since St. Francis shot 1-of-15. Carolina has won plenty of games this season without three-pointers going in, but it sure would help against a team like this. The opponent doesn't seem to matter much, either - Florida State is a tough defensive team as well and Carolina hit 14-of-32 (nearly 44%) in two games against the Seminoles. But Kentucky has held down some very good three-point shooting teams all season, and particularly recently. Ohio State, Portland, Notre Dame, Washington and Vanderbilt all rank in or around the top 50% in three-point percentage and they shot a combined 32-of-103 (31.1%) against Kentucky in six games. Ohio State's Jon Diebler got his three's (4-of-7) but Ohio State's other guards had been shooting 16-of-22 in the Tournament and shot just 2-of-7 against Kentucky. Again, Carolina doesn't have to hit a ton of three's but a few sure wouldn't hurt.
Rebounding: Carolina has what you would think would be a sizable advantage (no pun intended) in this area. However, in the first meeting, Kentucky hung tough - Carolina out-rebounded them, 43-37, but Carolina's nine offensive rebounds were one of its lowest numbers this year. Carolina is not a great shooting team, and Kentucky is a team that thrives on one-shot defense. Kentucky is 9-6 when it is outrebounded and 19-2 when it outrebounds opponents. And though the Wildcats don't get many offensive rebounds - they haven't had more than ten in the last five games - they are now taking better advantage of the ones they do retrieve. In the last 13 games, they are more efficient with their boards, scoring 11.6 second-chance points off of 10.6 offensive rebounds. And in the first eight games, they were averaging 12.3 offensive rebounds but barely more second-chance points than they are now (11.9). Their five second-chance points against Carolina are tied for second-lowest this season - a new one was set against Ohio State with four second-chance points. Kentucky is 19-3 when scoring more second-chance points than opponents and 9-5 when it has the same or less. The Buckeyes scored 21 second-chance points, the most Kentucky has allowed all year. And despite all that, Kentucky won. Just 12 of Carolina's 36 opponents this year have managed to score more second-chance points than offensive rebounds and taking out Duke - which scored 49 second-chance points on 36 offensive rebounds (+13), all other Carolina opponents are have 64 fewer offensive rebounds than points. That's because it is hard to score on the Tar Heels inside, but it is hard to score on the Wildcats as well.
Carolina is going to surrender some offensive rebounds because that's the nature of the game. But they have to make sure Kentucky can't cash in on those second chances. And if they could dominate the backboards, it would help as Carolina may be at a disadvantage on the perimeter, particularly with Kentucky's depth there. Carolina outrebounded its three NCAA Tournament opponents by +6 per game but opponents hold the edge on the offensive glass (48-46) while Carolina holds a +6.7 edge on second chance points and in offensive rebounding percentage (+4.7 percentage points). Still, Carolina has had a significant size advantage in all of those games (though Marquette and Washington were athletic) and Kentucky, while smaller down low, is plenty athletic and very long on the perimeter. Despite being at a size disadvantage down low against most opponents, Kentucky has more than held its own on the inside, especially lately now that Josh Harrellson has come on. In two of the three games Kentucky faced Florida's powerful front line (three players), Josh Harrellson and Terrence Jones combined to out-rebound them. The only exception was Florida's only win in three meetings. In the second two, Kentucky's front line held a 36-31 edge on the board (12-8 on the offensive class) and committed just eight fouls to the Gators' 17, turning it over three times to their 12 and blocking five shots to their two. In the SEC Tournament title game, Florida's bigs shot 9-of-20 from the floor, 3-of-7 from the line and had seven fouls and eight turnovers. Kentucky outrebounded West Virginia's front line 18-17 (they also had three bigs starting) in 24 fewer minutes played.
Names To Know
Kendall Marshall: The freshman said he had learned a lesson from the ACC Tournament, and it appears he was right. In that three-game stretch, he averaged 7.3 points on 23% shooting (33.3% from three) and had 23 assists to 14 turnovers. In the first three games of the NCAA Tournament, he has averaged 7.7 points but on 53.8% shooting (3-of-5 from three) and has 31 assists to just eight turnovers. Roy Williams has said that he might have started Marshall earlier this season, but he struggled in some early non-conference games. One such game was Kentucky. The freshman had no points on 0-of-1 shooting (one of only four games this year he did not make a field goal while attempting at least one) and added three assists and three turnovers in just ten minutes, tied for his season-low. He saw a few different Wildcats guarding him in that span, from DeAndre Liggins to Doron Lamb, but he spent most of his time on Brandon Knight and to say he struggled would be putting it mildly. He left Knight wide open for two three's (both of which he made) and in the second half after he threw it away into a crowd down low, he was yanked after two minutes and did not come back in. He had some nice moments in the first half offensively, making one of his patented hit-ahead passes to Zeller in transition for a dunk, but he overthrew another long pass later in the half and then threw it away seconds later. Obviously, Marshall is a different player now, particularly offensively. But Kentucky made their intentions to put the 6-foot-6 DeAndre Liggins on him defensively, which could make things difficult for the freshman (he had three blocks against Ohio State). That could create some mismatches in other areas of the court that Marshall is sure to find, but his defense will be the biggest question mark. Defending the dribble drive is not easy, and he will have to guard someone on the perimeter that is very good at it. He will have to stop penetration and rotate out to the three-point shooters in this game. He also has to stay out of foul trouble - he picked up three against Marquette and has picked up three or more in six of the last eight games. That can't happen; Carolina needs him on the floor.
Tyler Zeller: He's still running the court like a deer, but it appears Carolina's junior center has learned how to physically withstand the beatings that have administered on him by opposing teams (who sometimes put players in the game specifically for that purpose) and dish out some of his own medicine as well. But he has been dominant, averaging 27.3 points on 55.3% shooting and 83.3% from the foul line. He is also averaging 12 free throw attempts per game (ten made) to go with 7.7 rebounds (4.3 offensive) and had a career-high four assists against Marquette. The Golden Eagles were perhaps as physical with him as any team in the Tournament so far has tried to be, and yet he had 27 points and 12 rebounds (seven offensive, tied for the most in a game this year). He has also averaged 1.3 steals in the Tournament and has five in the last two games. If there's an issue, it's his potential for foul trouble. He has picked up three fouls in each of the NCAA Tournament games and has at least three fouls in seven of Carolina's last ten games. He has played brilliant positional defense in the NCAA Tournament so far, but there have been times when he has taken unnecessary risks on defense. The good news is that he is not letting frustration with calls - or a lack of a call - on one end stay with him on the other anymore. Kentucky's Josh Harrellson is going to try to frustrate Zeller the same way he did freshman Jared Sullinger; it didn't show up in the box score (besides his four turnovers) but he was visibly frustrated. Zeller had Harrellson - albeit a completely different player at that time, not nearly as confident as he is now - on him in the first meeting this year. And Zeller's game against Kentucky in December showed off all of his skill set - he had 27 points on 8-of-13 shooting and added 11-of-12 free throws (10-of-10 came late in the game) and 11 rebounds to go with five blocks and no turnovers. Harrellson remembers that, and won't want Zeller to have a repeat performance. Zeller will have to keep Harrellson off the glass and defend him, too. If Carolina continues to find him in the post rather than jack up ill-advised jumpers - he can have yet another big game.
Brandon Knight: The talented freshman point guard has really grown this season and even during this Tournament at times, hitting game-winners in two of Kentucky's three games so far. In the one game that he didn't do that - West Virginia - he had 30 points, a career-high. He has already broken John Wall's freshman scoring record at Kentucky and is averaging 17.2 points on about 44% shooting (38% from three) along with nearly 80% from the foul line. He averages 4.6 attempts a game, no doubt due at least in part to how well he is running the dribble drive. He has averaged 13.7 points in the Tournament so far, largely on the strength of the 30-point game - he had two against Princeton (just the game-winner) and nine against Ohio State (plus the game-winner). He has averaged 4.3 assists and 3.7 turnovers so far in the Tournament, which is probably a reason Kentucky has been flirting with losing some of these games - he has averaged 4.3 assists to 4.0 turnovers in the Wildcats' eight losses and 4.1 assists to 2.9 turnovers in 28 wins. And there's no question that Knight can get into the lane seemingly at will. He hasn't shot over 50% in a game since February 26th in a home win over Florida, but he has gone to the line 5.7 times per game in the last ten and stayed aggressive. He has hit just 8-of-34 three's (24%) in the last six games after hitting nearly 41% in his first 30 games. But Knight is averaging 20.2 points per game in ten games against top-25 teams and shooting 45.8% (44.4% from three) and 87.3% from the foul line. He had 15 points on 5-of-12 shooting against Carolina in the first meeting and Carolina could not keep him - or his teammates, for that matter - out of the lane, relying on Zeller and Henson to bail them out. The Carolina guards - whoever is guarding Knight - will have to stop his penetration and try to force him into some turnovers with aggressive defense. He had four assists against Carolina last time to go with three steals but added five fouls and six turnovers.
Josh Harrellson: The 6-10 senior forward is playing with a lot of confidence right now, and why not? He averaged 6.9 points and 8.8 rebounds entering the SEC Tournament, and in those three games - plus the first three NCAA Tournament games - he is averaging 10.8 points and 8.8 rebounds on 70.8% shooting. He has increased nearly every stat except for his fouls (down to 2.0 from 2.5) and played terrific positional defense on Ohio State star Jared Sullinger, visibly frustrating him most of the game. But even before his hot streak, he as a good rebounder. Harrellson is 18th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage (per Ken Pomeroy) and Carolina has faced four ranked higher - Washington's Aziz N'Diaye, Miami's Reggie Johnson and NC State's Richard Howell (in the first meeting). Those three combined for 35 rebounds in four games and 95 total minutes; they pulled down 4.5 offensive rebounds per game between them. N'Diaye had 11 rebounds in 20 minutes (five offensive). Harrellson had four points in 21 minutes against Carolina in the last meeting, adding seven rebounds (four offensive) but picked up three first-half fouls guarding Tyler Zeller. In his final 2:30 minutes of game action (he fouled out with 47 seconds left), he made some big plays - he got an offensive rebound and put-back to put Kentucky up one with 53 seconds left but fouled out six seconds later. He ended up with four of Kentucky's eight offensive rebounds (two were "team" rebounds) and was responsible for all five of the Wildcats' second-chance points (scored two, assisted on a three). In the NCAA Tournament so far, he has pulled down 13 of Kentucky's 22 offensive rebounds and scored 10 of their 19 second-chance points. He's had such a positive impact on this team and is such a good rebounder that Carolina will need to go at him and try to get him in foul trouble. At the very least, the Tar Heels will have to match his effort and physicality on the backboards and in the paint.